Saturday, September 14, 2013

Preview/Live Blog - Thoughts on the Mayweather-Canelo Fight

Tonight is the night that we've all been waiting for.  It's a night that's been hyped up for months: trash talk has ensued, Showtime's "All Access" specials have aired, and every sports analyst and educated fan in the country has given their two cents as to who will win this fight and why.  Now, it's finally here.  The polarizing Floyd "Money" Mayweather Jr, who boasts a 44-0 record for his career, will step into the ring with the pride of Mexico, the red-headed Saul "Canelo" Alvarez, who holds an equally impressive 42-0-1 record.  Two undefeated fighters, the 36 year old egomaniac Mayweather and the 23 year old up and comer Canelo who prefers to let his fists do the talking, will square off for 12 rounds in this super welterweight championship fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. It promises to be a night that boxing fans will remember for a long time to come.



Now most people are ready to hand the title to Floyd Mayweather already.  As much as I hate Floyd (he forms a Big 4 of athletes that I hate the most along with Yasiel Puig, Michael Beasley, and Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss), there is no doubt that he is one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. 44 times he has entered the ring as a professional and 44 times he has walked away victorious.  It hasn't always been pretty (ahem, ahem de la Hoya) and it hasn't always been clean (cough, cough Victor Ortiz), but Floyd has always found a way to get the job done.  He's such an incredibly smart fighter, his head movement and his footwork are textbook, he works the jab effectively, he can land timely power shots from time to time, he is a methodic counter puncher, and his defense, my goodness his defense! Trying to find a spot to land an effective shot against Mayweather's D is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Most, if not all, of the opponents Mayweather has faced have found themselves striking air more often than not and there's nothing that tires out a fighter more than coming up empty time and time again on a punch.  Floyd also has experience on his side and he has an unwavering desire to maintain his undefeated record.  The younger Floyd, when he was still Pretty Boy, used to care more about knocking his opponents out and fighting hard and well.  But the new Money Mayweather doesn't really care about giving a good fight anymore.  Now he'll fight effectively for the first 8-9 rounds and get ahead on the judge's scorecards, then he'll just start to dance when he realizes that all he has to do is stand pat and he'll win the fight by decision.  And he has the tools to pull this off time and time again, particularly his incredible defense, so trying to find a way to beat Floyd is a daunting task. Seems like 9 out of every 10 boxing experts are predicting a Mayweather victory and even Las Vegas gave Floyd a 73% chance of winning.  But all I have to say is "Don't count out Canelo."



For being as great a fighter as Canelo Alvarez is, it's amazing that he's such an underdog in this bout, but the facts are the facts.  I guess that's what happens when you square off against the man who many see as the #1 fighter in the world.  Looking at the opponents Canelo has faced in his career, one might not be too impressed by him.  The average fan might only recognize two of Alvarez's opponents: Matthew Hatton, otherwise known as "Little Ricky Hatton" and the washup Shane Mosley, both of whom  he beat by unanimous decision.  But read a bit further and maybe even watch a couple of those fights.  His two most recent fights against Josesito Lopez last September and against Austin Trout last April give a very good glimpse into how elite of a fighter Canelo really is.  Watching the Lopez fight, I was blown away by both Canelo's speed and his power.  It takes a rare fighter to throw a punch with both speed and power as consistently as Canelo does.  In that fight, I was also impressed by the way Alvarez controlled the pace of the fight, kept Lopez at bay utilizing his long reach to work the jab, used his size to intimidate, threw brutal body shots, and made Lopez miss before the referee finally stopped the fight in the 5th round.  The Austin Trout fight was equally impressive.  It was a tougher matchup for Canelo because Trout was taller and had a longer reach but Canelo adjusted, showing more defensive skills in this fight, while still sticking to his gameplan and dominating Trout with his power shots.  He put Trout on the canvass for the first time in his career en route to delivering the first L to Trout's record.  Canelo is a man who is an all-around fighter and has all of the tools to become the future of boxing and the face of the sport's next generation.  And Canelo has also never lost a professional fight (he did have a draw early in his career) and he actually has knocked out more opponents than Mayweather has (30 to Mayweather's 26), a testament to his incredible power. So never count out Canelo because he has the best chance to defeat Floyd amongst anyone that has ever stepped into the ring with him.



Now there are several factors that could swing this fight one way or the other.  The way Canelo comes out as the first and only man to defeat Mayweather is by relying on his power and not falling into Mayweather's gameplan.  Canelo has the kind of power that could end a fight early with one punch but he's gonna have to get to Mayweather early.  Canelo's power is much more staggering than that of Mayweather so if Canelo were to pull this off, it would have to be by knockout in the early to middle rounds.  But if this fight goes deeper into the late rounds, or perhaps even goes the distance, it will be difficult to defeat Floyd because Floyd is such a smart, methodical, defensive fighter that is built for long, punishing fights with his stamina and his instincts.  People talk a lot about experience in this fight being a huge advantage for Mayweather but I think that we're blowing this a bit out of proportion.  Mayweather has fought professionally 44 times. Alvarez has fought professionally 43 times.  The difference is not that great.  Yes Floyd has 13 years on Canelo but at the end of the day, it matters how much experience you have in the ring and not how long you've been on this earth.  You see, Mayweather usually fights once a year, twice at the absolute most.  Canelo will fight three, four, even five times a year.  And seeing that the Mayweather-Guerrero fight was just four months ago (a fight that will be remembered more for the classic moment of Ruben Guerrero calling Floyd a woman beater at the pre-fight press conference with Oscar de la Hoya hilariously trying to take back control of the press conference as he had a look on his face like Michael Ryan when he saw Ron Artest coming at him), this will be the shortest layoff that Mayweather has had in recent memory so that might work against him.  Another possible swing factor might be the catch weight.  This fight will be at a catchweight of 152 lbs.  Canelo is most confortable at 154, that's where he's done his best work, so that could play a factor.  But you look at Mayweather's history fighting at 152 and historically he has struggled.  152 is the weight where de la Hoya took Mayweather the distance and even wound up winning on one of the judge's scorecards.  152 is also the weight where Mayweather struggled against Miguel Cotto.  Cotto put Mayweather on the ropes a lot and was hitting Mayweather harder and more often than we're used to seeing Mayweather be hit.  Cotto made Mayweather bleed visibly, something that never happens. He has looked mortal at 152 at times so does this pattern continue tonight? Breaking it down, I'd give the advantages in speed, instincts, and defense to Mayweather but the advantages in power, size, and physical tools to Canelo.  Floyd's natural skills have eroded a bit at 36, while Canelo still has yet to hit his prime.  Watch out for CJ Ross too.  The judge who made the absolutely heinous decision to score the Pacquiao-Bradley fight 115-113 for Bradley will be one of the judges working this fight so we could have some problems if this fight goes to the judges.  In the end, my heart is telling me to predict Canelo by knockout in 6, my head is telling me to predict that this fight will go the distance and Floyd will win by UD, and the conspiracy theorist in me tells me it will be a draw (Sidenote: think about it.  If Mayweather loses, it will be his last fight.  There's no reason to watch a Mayweather fight anymore after Mayweather loses. And he's the biggest money maker in the history of the sport so boxing can't afford for him to lose tonight.  But Canelo is undefeated himself and has many more years left in him at just age 23, which means more fights, which means more money.  If Canelo loses, he loses significant marketability as well as the opportunity to become the face of boxing for many years to come.  It makes perfect sense to think that this could be rigged to be a draw.  Neither fighter loses marketability, it sets up potential for a rematch, etc.)  I for one am going all in behind Canelo.  I really feel that he is our best and our last chance to defeat Floyd because let's be honest here: Pacquiao-Mayweather isn't happening in this lifetime, or any other lifetime.  But in terms of my prediction, seeing that the last time I went with my heart instead of my head, I picked Albert Pujols over Robinson Cano in my fantasy baseball draft, I will have to begrudgingly predict a Mayweather victory by unanimous decision while still holding out hope that Canelo will end Mayweather's night early with a power shot putting Floyd on the canvass for the count.



Check back closer to fight time as I will be round by round live blogging the fight right here.

LIVE BLOG:

9:10 PM PST: And we are live! The three undercards have reached completion and we are ready for the main event. This is my first time trying to pull off the live blog so this should be a lot of fun. I'll also be scoring the fight round by round a la Harold Lederman using my unofficial Albert scorecard.  Damn, I've got butteflies already! Let's get ready to rumble!!

9:19 PM PST National Anthem time. Some guy named Pedro Fernandez out to sing the Mexican National Anthem first. Canelo and his entourage singing along

9:20 PM PST That Pedro Fernandez guy looks like Tony Gonzalez. Now another dude I've never heard of named Tank singing the Star Spangled Banner

9:24 PM PST Canelo walking out to the ring now sporting a robe in the colors of the Mexican flag

9:25 PM PST Apparently Saul is pronounced "SA-OOL" Better call Sa-ool

9:27 PM PST Now Floyd's turn to make his way into the ring. At his side? Lil Wayne and Justin Bieber. Yep.

9:29 PM PST Announcers making note of how this is Floyd's first time fighting twice in one year since 2007. Will it play a factor?

9:30 PM PST Tale of the tape: Canelo will come into the ring weighing 165, Mayweather 150. Mayweather with a reach a couple inches longer.

9:32 PM PST Mentioned this before, but I'm pleased that Kenny Bayless is in the ring. One of the best.

9:33 PM PST That was lame. "IT'S SHOWTIME"? Madison Avenue, you never fail to commercialize EVERYTHING. Hope that wasn't the replacement for "Let's get ready to rumble."

9:34 PM PST Looks like the crowd is behind Canelo. Surprise, surprise. Mayweather met with scattered boos.

9:35 PM PST Kenny Bayless giving instructions now. We're about to start.

9:36 PM PST And we're off

9:40 PST
ROUND 1
Mayweather a bit aggressive to start off. Canelo making him miss. Floyd's speed is evident and he's weaving and bobbing. Canelo threw a big right that hit nothing but air. Neither fighter really working the jab a whole lot. Mayweather trying to take shots at Canelo's body and missing. Canelo landed a good counter shot. Floyd looking cocky, not protecting his head. Seeing some of the speed and power combo from Canelo that I saw in the Josesito Lopez fight. All in all, limited action, both fighters just trying to get a feel for one another and trying to figure out the other guy's gameplan. 98% of first rounds look like this so I'm not surprised by the lack of action in this one.  The judges will probably score this one 10-9 for Mayweather because they always give the first round to the favorite.  But for me, I always score the first round 10-10. That's just my philosophy. For me to score a first round anything other than a 10-10, it better be in the Hagler-Hearns category. And this first round wasn't.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 1
Mayweather 10
Alvarez 10

ROUND 2
Mayweather protecting his head a bit better. He's clearly the more aggressive fighter right now. Canelo is going at Floyd's body, landing a nice combo. Floyd responded and caught Canelo with a left. Canelo more defensive but he shows some aggression lunging at Mayweather. Now Floyd is using his jab effectively and keeping Canelo at bay. Canelo looks slower but you can hear the power of his punches as they land on Floyd. Neither fighter was particularly convincing in this round but Floyd did a nice job of counterpunching and using the jab. I give this round to Floyd.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 2
Mayweather 20
Alvarez 19

ROUND 3
Canelo relying on the hook trying to hurt Mayweather. Graphic flashes showing that Floyd has connected on far more punches than Floyd. Fighters keep getting tangled up. Nice combo to the body by Canelo. Canelo is starting to heat up. Mayweather back to leaving his head unprotected but still using that jab effectively.  Mayweather connecting with Canelo's head as Canelo looks to be in full defensive mode. But in the last 45 seconds, Canelo gets a bit more aggressive and starts throwing more punches, including some effective counters. Floyd is better on his feet. Floyd keeps working the punch and duck. Canelo was better in the last part of the round but Mayweather's combinations on Canelo, putting him on the ropes and making him look slow, are huge.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 3
Mayweather 30
Alvarez 28

ROUND 4
Both fighters looking a lot more aggressive.  Mayweather landing some solid right and left hands. Apparently, Canelo snuck in a low blow on Floyd. Bayless pauses the fight. Floyd runs his mouth and then tries to touch gloves with Canelo and Canelo leaves him hanging.  This is starting to get good. Canelo tries to go to Floyd's body, Floyd counters with body shots of his own. Some swelling starting around Canelo's eye looks like. Canelo focusing on Floyd's head. Floyd focusing on Canelo's body.  Both fighters are starting to settle in. Canelo and Floyd close with nice straights to the other's head. Apparently, the low blow was retaliation for Floyd putting Canelo is a headlock. Close round, I'm giving this to Floyd. Most entertaining round yet.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 4
Mayweather 40
Alvarez 37

ROUND 5
Mayweather smiling as Canelo lands some punches. Canelo working the jab now and he may be starting to hurt Floyd. Double and triple jabs from Canelo giving Floyd a taste of his own medicine. Canelo doing a better job of making Floyd miss but Floyd still landing and working the head. Mayweather was more defensive in this round but landed timely punches including a huge right hand. Canelo not too offensive. Canelo better pick things up

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 5
Mayweather 50
Alvarez 46

ROUND 6
Canelo gave a nice jab and straight counter. He is focusing more on Floyd's head now. Mayweather staying low, stingy on the punches he throws. Mayweather solid combinations. Canelo shoulder bumped Mayweather and pointed at Floyd as Bayless separated them. Clearly, Canelo has no respect for Floyd.  Canelo isn't too effective throwing combinations but he is stepping up his defense. Alvarez is starting up a counter attack that looked great at times. Hadn't seen that very often from him. Canelo is showing more heart now and this is the first round that I'll give to Canelo.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 6
Mayweather 59
Alvarez 56

ROUND 7
Through 6, this is still anyone's fight. No one is taking control or setting the pace. But that changed a bit this round. Mayweather going back to the jab. Alvarez needs to do a better job of using his weight advantage. Mayweather throwing many more punches than Canelo in this round. When Canelo throws, he's throwing straights that find nothing but air. Mayweather connecting right through Canelo's defense. Mayweather's starting to take control. His rights are going right through Canelo's gloves. Excellent combinations by Mayweather. Canelo is just taking it and not countering. That's not the way to beat Floyd. Floyd takes this round more convincngly than any of the other rounds he's won so far.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 7
Mayweather 69
Alvarez 65

ROUND 8
Alvarez opens working Mayweather's body nicely but nothing he's doing is hurting Mayweather much. Canelo is the more aggressive fighter this round. Landed some punches through Mayweather's D but Mayweather is ducking through some. Last minute and a half, Canelo is starting to attack. he's putting Floyd on the ropes and he's landing. You can hear the glove to body pop now. Floyd doing better in the last 30 seconds of countering and jabbing, sticking to his gameplan. This round wasn't too convincing one way or the other. I will give this round to Canelo but it wasn't too convincing. A lot of his punches landed, but landed on Mayweather's arms and shoulders.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 8
Mayweather 78
Alvarez 75

ROUND 9
Liking what I'm seeing from Canelo to start. That nice thwack of glove as it lands on Mayweather's body and head. Remember Canelo could change this entire fight with one punch. But Floyd comes back using the hand speed to get to Canelo's head. Canelo trying to go back to the jab. Mayweather's head movement and counter punching are incredible. Canelo can't keep covering up and taking it. Canelo is throwing a decent amount of punches but a lot hit air.  Mayweather's too fast. Mayweather taking control, Canelo has to do something and do something soon. Another round for Floyd.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 9
Mayweather 88
Alvarez 84

ROUND 10
Canelo is starting to look tired. He's still throwing a decent amount of punches but hitting air has gotta be exhausting. These late rounds are where Mayweather thrives. He put Canelo on the ropes but Canelo came back and put Mayweather on the ropes and teed off on the body and head. Now Canelo not protecting his head well enough. Some trash talk between the two at the end of the round. Mayweather looks brilliant with his combinations. START COUNTER PUNCHING, CANELO!! He keeps taking Mayweather's straights to the head and Mayweather keeps scoring. This one goes to Floyd

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 10
Mayweather 98
Alvarez 93

ROUND 11
I'm thinking Mayweather is going to start to dance but he didn't. Canelo working Floyd's body on the ropes but Floyd keeps countering with devastating accuracy. Floyd going on the attack and keeps utilizing that jab and hopping out of the way of Canelo's punches. Not the same Canelo that I saw in the Lopez and Austin Trout fights. In one sequence, Floyd leaped out of the way of Canelo's straight and Canelo's punch embarrassingly landed on the ropes. Canelo looks slow and a bit tired but props to him for having the heart to keep coming at Floyd. Still heart alone isn't enough to win a fight. Gonna take a miracle in these last 3 minutes for Canelo to win.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD THROUGH 11
Mayweather 108
Alvarez 102

ROUND 12
Floyd dancing a little bit now. There's the Floyd we all know. Canelo landed one good counter shot but he should have been doing this a lot earlier.  Mayweather's floating around the entire ring now. Canelo looking wilder now throwing vicious shots at Mayweather's body. But it looks to be too little too late. He's gotta be looking for a one KO punch at this point and he's not doing it. Canelo has lost a bit of steam from his punch. And the bell sounds.  We go to the judges. This fight goes to Mayweather as he caps off a pretty dominant performance and shows nice sportsmanship greeting Canelo at the end, putting ill feelings aside.

UNOFFICIAL ALBERT SCORECARD
Mayweather 118
Alvarez 111

JUDGES CARDS
Majority decision? What?!?! CJ Ross at it again? One judge scored this fight 114-114. Floyd looks absolutely baffled. But the other two judges overrule it and score it for 116-112 and 117-111 for the winner and still champion, Floyd Mayweather Jr. Canelo Alvarez gets handed the first loss of his career.

INTERVIEWS
Mayweather gets interviewed by Jim Gray. Talking about how he was looking for a stoppage as of late. Took a shot at the judge who scored this fight a draw. Floyd says Canelo never really hurt him and I'd agree that it certainly didn't look like it. Floyd talks his usual promoter nonsense. He says that he woke up this morning weighing 146 pounds. I was hoping for a Larry Merchant sighting.

Canelo gets interviewed. Uses an interpreter and gives it in Spanish. Talks about how he wasn't able to figure out Floyd because Floyd was too fast and ultimately too good. Gives his props to Mayweather and says he got frustrated.  "We just could not catch him," I think that about sums up Canelo's night.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Simply put, Floyd was too much for Canelo tonight. Canelo looked nothing like the brilliant fighter we saw in his victories over Josesito Lopez and Austin Trout. Floyd made him look silly using his hand speed and his defense/counter punching to confuse Canelo. You could see Canelo's power at times but he didn't do a good enough job of using his 15 lb weight difference to his advantage. Canelo looked slow and while he showed a lot of heart, he never really hurt Floyd.  He also kept taking Floyd's straights to the head far too often and didn't counter punch well enough. He didn't take advantage when Floyd was on the ropes and Floyd's movement and solid blend of attacking and defending were overwhelming tonight. As disappointing as it is for Mayweather haters like myself, Floyd takes the victory and improves to 45-0 while Canelo falls to 42-1-1. Looks like my prediction of the fight going the distance and Mayweather taking it by unanimous decision was almost right, I just didn't account for the CJ Ross Corollary.  Now we have the Bradley-Marquez fight next month to look forward to. Good night folks! Thanks for making my first live blogging experience a success!!