Thoughts on Matt Harvey's UCL Tear

An absolutely devastating blow was delivered  to the New York Mets, their fans, and really, baseball fans/lovers everywhere today with the news that 24 year old Mets ace Matt Harvey, an exciting, young pitcher in the midst of a breakout 2013 campaign, had suffered a tear to the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his pitching elbow.  Harvey, who had been enjoying a Cy Young-worthy season with a glorious line of a 2.27 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and nearly 200 strikeouts in 178.1 IP, was making a serious run this year for the title of "Best pitcher in the NL not named Clayton Kershaw." He was even given the ball to start for the NL in this year's All-Star Game and performed incredibly firing two shutout innings and striking out three on the night.   But now all of a sudden, Harvey is likely looking at Tommy John surgery, a lengthy rehab, and the possibility that he may be on the shelf until the 2015 MLB season.  How did this happen and what does this mean?

Now this injury may have seemed like it came out of nowhere, and to an extent it did.  However, many warning signs were already in place soon before the results of the MRI came in.  After an incredible first several months of the season, Harvey began to show decreased effectiveness even a little before his All-Star Game gem.  In his last two starts prior to the break, he was hammered for 8 combined earned runs and looked very little like early season Matt Harvey.  Blame that on the pitching hand blister he was dealing with at the time if you must, but you gotta entertain the possibility that it was the beginning of the end for Harvey.  He returned to form a bit in his next couple of starts after the break, stifling the Phillies and the Nationals, but August was where things got problematic.  In five August starts, he eclipsed 6 strikeouts only once and if you throw out his complete game gem against Colorado on the 7th, he never made it to 7 innings in any of those starts.  Perhaps most concerning was his decreased velocity as of late.  Harvey's FanGraphs page shows that after consistently being able to get his fastball in the 97-98 range, even reaching 100 at times, earlier in the season, in August, Harvey's fastball velocity had decreased noticeably to the point that it was falling below 95 and only topping out around 97.  This can't be a case of simple late season wear and tear because it seemed like the Mets knew something was up too.  There was talk of shutting Harvey down for the season even dating back to early July, and New York ultimately made the decision to shut him down after 200 innings pitched.  Yes, he only threw 59 innings in the majors last year but he tacked on an additional 110 in the minors so having him play out the season wouldn't have been too far out of his wheelhouse, unless the Mets sensed a potential problem in doing so.  Harvey is a guy who has a strong 6'4", 225 pound frame.  That's a build that should be able to handle a workhorse-like load.  And throw in the fact that he's never had much of a prior injury history, if any, that would merit such caution and you get the feeling that the New York Mets might have sensed the danger.  Once Harvey started complaining of forearm soreness and went for what was supposed to be a precautionary MRI today, disaster was complete.

So what now for Harvey and the Mets? Well, the good news is that it's only a partial tear but that's about the extent of the good news in this situation as this is his pitching elbow we're talking about here.  Caution has got to be the word now for the New York Mets organization.  Harvey has been all but ruled out for the rest of this year but the Mets are holding out hope that rest and rehab can get Harvey back to full health once the swelling subsides.  Now, avoiding surgery in this situation is far from impossible, but it is extremely, extremely rare aso the Mets should take the best course of action to ensure the long-term health of their ace: Tommy John surgery.  Those are probably the last three words you want to hear when dealing with your young ace, but it looks like it's going to be inevitable in this situation.  Surgery would rule out Harvey for the entire 2014 season as he rehabs and he might even be on restrictions/an innings limit if/when he returns in the 2015 season.

It's hard to compare Harvey's situation with those of other pitchers who have suffered UCL tears because every arm and every situation is different.  You look at 2012 NL Cy Young winner, former Met, R.A. Dickey who is actually pitching completely without the UCL in his pitching elbow.  However, the difference is that Dickey is a knuckleballer.  Having a kunckleball as your main pitch rather than the fastball, as is the case with Harvey, puts significantly less strain on the arm so there is really no comparison.  You look at a guy like Adam Wainwright for the Cardinals who suffered a much worse injury to his pitching elbow (almost a full blowout and two different tears) in the late 2010 season.  Wainwright underwent Tommy John surgery, missed the entire 2011 season completed his lengthy rehab, came back and had a decent 2012 season and is now having a phenomenal 2013 season where he leads the league in CGs and the NL in wins in his age 31 campaign.  Even Stephen Strasburg, who tore his UCL around late August as well of the 2010 season had his Tommy John surgery, returned late in 2011, and then put up All-Star numbers on a restriction in 2012 and now looks like a new man in 2013.  But then you look at guys like Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers and Daniel Hudson of the D-Backs.  Billingsley had a partial tear as well and opted to avoid surgery going instead for the R+R treatment.  He rushed back to make the first couple of starts for this season but then his elbow deteriorated to the point that Tommy John surgery could no longer be avoided and now he's a longshot to be ready for the start of 2014.  And Hudson tore his UCL in early 2012, rehabbed, then had some setbacks, re-tore the UCL again, and is now looking at another year before he can even sniff the mound again.  So you never know.

Similarities?

As for the Mets, it seems like a dark future for their pitching staff.  Prior to the Harvey news, they had already been dealt a couple of major blows with the news of the season-ending injuries to two members of their rotation, Jeremy Hefner and Jenrry Mejia.  They even had to sign the forgotten Daisuke Matsuzaka to fill out their staff and if we're to evaluate that decision based on Dice-K's first start, it's not working out so well.  Now with the news of Harvey's injury that could keep him out till 2015, their rotation for the rest of this year and probably most, if not all, of next year could be a mess of Herculean proportions.  Jon Niese has been disappointing this year with a 5-6 record and a nasty 4.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.  Dillion Gee hasn't been much better at 9-9 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.  And don't even get me started on former Cy Young winner Johan Santana who is doubtful to ever be healthy ever again.  I guess the best course of action for the Mets would be to hand the keys of the rotation to young up and coming prospect Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler dazzled in the minors and while he's still adjusting to the majors (particularly with his command as he's been issuing a pretty unhealthy number of walks), he has had a decent year this year and could be ready to make the leap next year.  But if he doesn't and the Mets don't make a splash in free agency 2013 and land a solid arm to bolster that rotation, without Harvey, this rotation could be nothing more than batting practice for opponents until he returns.  Long story short, this is absolutely crippling news for the New York Mets and Matt Harvey and all we can do is hope that his recovery goes well so he can get back on the mound and pitch at a high level again.