Friday, June 28, 2013

Thoughts on the 2013 NBA Draft: Grades for Picks and Draft-Day Trades

Wow.  Draft day was really something else.  This draft class of 2013 was often criticized for its lack of depth, lack of franchise-altering players, lack of strength and excitement.  But one thing you can't say about this draft was that it wasn't exciting.  With so many ups and downs, so many unexpected twists and major trades involving contenders, and so many cool moments, it was an incredible evening for NBA basketball.  Here, I break down the major first-round (lottery) selections and draft-day trades and give grades for each.

Wait......what?

#1- Cleveland Cavaliers- Anthony Bennett, F, UNLV
Grade: D

This was perhaps the biggest shocker of them all last night: the Cleveland Cavaliers immediately ruining every single mock draft by selecting UNLV forward Anthony Bennett first overall.  All indications were that the race for #1 had come down to two options: Alex Len and Nerlens Noel.  Victor Oladipo was mentioned as a dark horse and Otto Porter and Ben McLemore were in the discussion as well.  Nobody and I mean NOBODY had Anthony Bennett going first overall.  A gutsy move, I'll give that to Cleveland, but a stupid move nonetheless.  They elected to take a risky pick, and boy is Bennett a risky pick, especially that high.  He had a listed weight of 240 (pretty big for a 6'8" forward) but recent reports had him soaring to 261 pounds.  He's coming off a pretty big shoulder injury and while he has drawn some comparisons to former Hornets PF Larry Johnson, the Cavs are set at the 4 with Tristan Thompson, possibly creating a detrimental time share now that Bennett is in town.  Moving him over to the 3 wouldn't work because Bennett simply doesn't have the right build to be a small forward.  Don't get me wrong, he's a fine player.  He rebounds the ball well, has some impressive range for a power forward (he'd have the ability to pick and pop with Kyrie Irving), in addition to a refined post game.  However, not only did it not fill a need for the Cavs, but he wasn't the best player available at #1 by any stretch of the imagination.  Cleveland needed a big man so despite the obvious risks, Len or Noel would be a better pick here.  If Cleveland wanted to take a risk, they should have gone for one of those two instead.  And Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, and Victor Oladipo (who I really think should have gone #1 as I mentioned in a previous post) all have more talent than Bennett.  It's a ballsy pick, can't deny that.  But either the Cavaliers front office knows something that we don't, or this is all going to blow up in Dan Gilbert's face sometime in the future.

#2- Orlando Magic- Victor Oladipo, G, Indiana
Grade: A+

The Orlando Magic made the smartest move in the draft by selecting Oladipo.  Despite earlier reports that said that they would pounce on Nerlens Noel if Cleveland passed on him, they stuck to their gameplan and drafted the Indiana wingman.  I can't say enough good things about Oladipo.  He works harder than anyone else, he's already an elite defender and can guard 3 different positions, he boasts a much improved jumpshot, and he's an explosive athlete that can live above the rim when need be.  His presence at the 2 will also now give Orlando the green light to ship out Arron Afflalo possibly to the Clippers in a run at Eric Bledsoe.  In a draft full of uncertainty, Victor Oladipo is head and shoulders above the rest as the safest choice and I look forward to watching him develop as a pro over many years to come.

The Magic with the best pick in the draft.  


#3- Washington Wizards- Otto Porter, G, Georgetown
Grade: B+

The Wizards needed a SF (the Trevor Ariza/Martell Webster show never has and never will work for them) and they got one in Georgetown guard Otto Porter.  Porter's ability to put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways will complement the backcourt scoring tandem of John Wall and Brad Beal.  He's a solid defender, has shown some nice abilities to dish the rock at times, and he's got great range, not to mention tremendous athleticism and an incredible 7'1" wingspan.  He also a local product having gone to school at Georgetown and he'll feel right at home with this organization.  Great choice by the Bullets.

#4- Charlotte Bobcats- Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana
Grade: C+

Another big shocker coming within the top 5.  The Charlotte Bobcats pass on Alex Len and Nerlens Noel and make Cody Zeller the second Indiana player to be selected in the 2013 lottery.  All I have to say is add this to Michael Jordan's greatest hits tour in the NBA Draft.  In 2001, Jordan selects Kwame Brown #1 overall.  In 2006, Jordan selects Adam Morrison #3 overall.  And in 2013, Jordan selects Cody Zeller #4 overall.  Ben McLemore was still on the board and would have provided a much needed scoring punch to an anemic Bobcats O.  Plus, Nerlens Noel would have provided a beastly shot-blocking tandem with Bismack Biyombo.  And let's not forget that Alex Len was still on the board.  I get that the Cats probably wanted a big man without the injury risks of a Len or a Noel so I'll cut them a bit of slack.  I'll also cut them some slack just because Zeller is a damn good player.  He's a great athlete on both sides of the ball and he runs the floor very well for a big.  He's also drawn comparisons to Chris Bosh and LaMarcus Aldridge with his jump shooting ability.  He posted some very impressive, even record breaking numbers, at the combine and has shown some elite athleticism for a guy his size.  In it of himself, Zeller is a fine player.  It's just what Charlotte had to pass up in order to get him that ruins it for me.

Really hope Cody Zeller breaks the trend of awful Michael Jordan picks


#5- Phoenix Suns- Alex Len, C, Maryland
Grade: B

This is about where I expected Len to be chosen.  The stress fracture concerns I thought would vault him at least out of the Top 3, but his solid all-around play would prevent him from sliding too far.  With traditional big man back to the basket skills, decent shot-blocking ability, and the ability to hit from mid-range, he's a quality pick.  A true big man, he can come in and make an impact right away for the Suns.  I just wonder what becomes of Marcin Gortat, who has shown promise as a legitimate NBA big man, now that Len has arrived in town.  Do the Suns trade him? Do they bring Len off the bench? Do they slide one to the 4 and go with a twin towers approach? That's the only reason I don't grade Len any higher than a B.  He doesn't fill a need for the Suns who I thought were already set at center.  But then again, sometimes you have to pick the best player on the board, and even if the Suns selected Len over Nerlens Noel, it's a nice choice.  Bonus points to Len for sporting the Ukrainian flag on the insides of his jacket.  That was a nice touch.



#6- New Orleans Pelicans- Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky (rights traded to the Philadelphia 76ers)
Grade: A-

ACL concerns aside, Noel is a steal anywhere outside of the top 5.  One of the most surprising storylines of this draft was Noel's shocking slide out of the top 5.  This was a guy that was the consensus #1 pick for most of the year even when you factor in his injury.  An elite shot-blocker, he can anchor a defense and he's a 7 footer that can run the floor well and make impact plays on the defensive end.  And he would have been a great pick for the Pelicans.  Combining with another Wildcat one and done in Anthony Davis, they would have formed a formidable defense.  Nobody was going to score on that frontcourt.  Blocks everywhere, "Block City" if you will.  And the Pelicans have Robin Lopez who would have been able to hold down the fort until Noel got back, and once he did get back, Lopez would have been able to settle into his true role as a backup center where he would have been able to thrive.  But alas, it was not meant to be.  Soon after being picked, Noel was shipped to the 76ers in a stunning deal.  Which brings me to my next point.

Trade #1: New Orleans Pelicans/Philadelphia 76ers
76ers receive: The rights to C Nerlens Noel, 2014 Top-5 protected first round pick
Pelicans receive: PG Jrue Holiday, the rights to #42 overall pick, PG Pierre Jackson
Grade for 76ers: C+
Grade for Pelicans: B

This was a pretty shocking trade when it was announced and as a matter a fact, it is still pretty shocking.  I think the Pelicans definitely got the better end of the deal.  Jrue Holiday is already a proven talent who is only starting to scratch at his ceiling as an NBA PG.  He can score and distribute with the best of them, and the fact that there are so many elite point guards tends to make some forget how good Holiday really is.  Coming off a season in which he achieved career highs in every major statistical category, he is still only 23 and has a lot of time to improve even more.  So the Pelicans have that to be happy about.  But now there is a major logjam at PG for the Pelicans adding both Holiday and Jackson to the roster.  What becomes now of Greivis Vasquez who had a breakout season last year, leading the league in total assists? There's been some talk that he'll play some SF but he's just not built for that situation.  Plus, the Noel/Unibrow combination would have been one of the most exciting frontcourt tandems in the NBA.  So, adding Jrue Holiday is a major win for the Pelicans but they certainly wouldn't have been too bad off had they kept Noel.

Now what about the Sixers? Noel is an elite defensive talent, I've already touched on that.  But, I fear the Sixers gave up too much to get him.  Jrue Holiday was the alpha dog on that team last year and was even named an All-Star last year.  Philly's offense revolved around him and he looked to be on the verge of superstardom in that system.  Now that he's out of town, who will take on the scoring load? Evan Turner? Thaddeus Young? Please.  So now they have to wait out Noel for at least the first couple of months of the season while (gulp) Spencer Hawes holds down the fort again at center.  The Sixers definitely improved defensively as a result of this trade, but offensively? Not so much.  And the pick that they are getting from the Pelicans for next year is top-5 protected and even if the Pelicans tank horribly next season, (which I don't envision with a hopefully healthy Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday coming in to run the offense), would not even allow the Sixers a chance at the Wiggins/Jabari Parker sweepstakes.  I don't know Philly.  What is it with you and centers with knee problems?

It's been done before

#7- Sacramento Kings- Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Grade: A+

This one was a no-brainer for the Kings.  I'm sure that even they were pleasantly surprised when McLemore fell into their laps.  McLemore probably shouldn't have gone in the top 3 due to concerns over his work ethic and ability to assert himself.  But 7th? What a steal for the Kings.  Given the new ownership, the new coaching staff, and the new dawn for this Kings franchise, this is a great situation for McLemore to land in.  This is a team that lacks an explosive, athletic talent on the wing.  Now they have that with McLemore who is lauded as a potential superstar and rightfully so with his freakish athleticism and lights-out shooting display. He can come in right away and start from day one if Mike Malone so desires which would allow for Tyreke Evans to slide to the 3 (assuming the Kings don't let him walk) and Marcus Thornton to keep his role as 6th man where he thrived last year (36 against the Heat anybody?).  And all the double teams DeMarcus Cousins commands could allow for a lot of open looks for McLemore down the stretch.  Nicely done Sacto.



#8- Detroit Pistons- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Grade: B-

I do think the Pistons would have been better off taking Trey Burke here.  He's a hometown hero after leading Michigan to the Final Four and he's a legit PG on a team searching for an identity at that position (Is Brandon Knight a PG or and SG? A starter or a backup? What about Rodney Stuckey? And does Jose Calderon even return next season?).  He was also the best player left on the board at #9.  Instead they elected for Caldwell-Pope who isn't a bad pick at all.  With a great jump shot and an incredible frame/build for a 2 guard, he can start right away and spread the floor for Greg Monroe to operate.  He's also an above-average rebounder for his position and he has shown the ability to create his own shots.  Pistons fans were definitely clamoring for GM Joe Dumars to draft Trey Burke here but they won't have too much to complain about if Caldwell-Pope comes in and injects some life into a Pistons team desperate for help on the wing.

#9- Minnesota Timberwolves- Trey Burke, PG, Michigan (rights traded to Utah Jazz)
Grade: A-

There was no way Trey Burke was sliding out of the top 10.  He's just too big of a talent.  Yes, he's barely 6 feet and his ability to defend bigger, stronger guards is a major question mark.  But this is a kid who won National Player of the Year and has a great combo of range and ball-handling/playmaking skills.  And seeing that the Timberwolves picked him for the Utah Jazz, the A- here applies to the Jazz.  The team desperately needs a PG seeing that Mo Williams is on his way out and (assuming that Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson walk, which is a likely scenario), a core to build around of Burke, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter will be one of the more interesting young cores in the NBA.  Burke is quick as a cheetah and thrives in the pick and roll which the Jazz might be able to execute nicely with the Favors/Kanter tandem.  It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to see Trey Burke put up close to what Damian Lillard put up last year.



#10- Portland Trail Blazers- CJ McCollum, PG, Lehigh
Grade: B+

And speaking of Damian Lillard, the Blazers were finally able to get a capable backup for him by drafting the talented Lehigh point guard.  McCollum knows how to put the ball in the basket and depending on what Coach Terry Stotts decides, could come off the bench to light things up in a hurry a la Vinnie Johnson or could see time at the 2 with Lillard at the 1 should they elect to go small with Matthews at the 3, Batum at the 4, and Aldridge at the 5.  He has incredible range and while his distributing could use some work, the Blazers made a big first step in improving their deplorable bench from last year.

#11- Philadelphia 76ers- Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Grade: C

With the departure of Jrue Holiday earlier in the evening, Michael Carter-Williams is going to be handed the reins to the 76ers' offense from the get go.  The potential is definitely there.  Carter-Williams at 6'6" immediately creates matchup problems on both ends for opposing point guards.  His defense is stellar and is a pretty explosive athlete.  However, he doesn't wow anyone with his shooting ability and his basketball IQ isn't his strongest point.  Unfortunately, it seems that his ceiling is rather low, but at this point in the draft, he is a great value.  The Sixers only get a C for this pick when MCW is more of a B talent because of their gameplan: shipping Jrue Holiday out of town and choosing Carter-Williams to go with Nerlens Noel to spell the future of the team isn't a decision that I think will wind up paying dividends for a disappointing Philadelphia team.

#12- Oklahoma City Thunder- Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Grade: A-

Rare that you see a major contender picking in the lottery but this is the pick the Thunder acquired in the James Harden deal.  That being said, I like the Adams pick for OKC.  Kendrick Perkins has really been more of a liability than anything over the last couple of seasons and Steven Adams, whose stock rose immensely after his performance at the combine, is not only an tough, athletic big, but also showed glimpses of a reliable jump shot (a huge asset for a big man, one that will create more room for Durant and Westbrook to slash up opposing defenses).  I don't know what becomes of Perkins after this, but he is now expendable which is a great sign for the Thunder.  Adams has a solid post-game and his almost guard-like ability to run the floor to go along with his freakish build (a nearly 7'5" inch wingspan!) has to have Thunder fans smiling.

#13- Dallas Mavericks- Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga (rights traded to the Boston Celtics)
Grade: B-

As before, the grade applies to the team that acquired this pick, the Celtics.  It's a nice pick.  Kelly Olynyk is a legitimate 7 footer on a Boston team now desperate for size and an interior presence.  He can be deadly in the half-court and has shown a nice touch to his jumpshot.  While he doesn't block as many shots for a guy his size and isn't as mobile as you'd like for a big man, like the old saying goes, "You can't teach size." so Olynyk as a low-risk, moderate-reward pick at this stage in the draft makes sense for the C's.

#14- Utah Jazz- Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA (rights traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves)
Grade: A

I give the Timberwolves a A for the acquisition of this pick when Muhammad may only be a B- talent (the Bizarro Michael Carter-Williams) because it's an almost ideal situation for Shabazz to land in.  Once touted as a top 5 overall pick, Muhammad's somewhat disappointing freshman year proved that he's pretty much a one-dimensional scorer without the ability to create his own shot.  He hits the 3 nicely but he can't make plays at all and he's not a knock your socks off athlete.  He also needs a lot of work on defense.  He is however an incredibly hard worker and has the length and build to compete at the NBA level.  It's a good fit for the T-Wolves.  Ricky Rubio will make him a lot better and the presence of a healthy Kevin Love could lead to many open looks for Muhammad from the perimeter.  Flip Saunders has already gone out and said that Muhammad will come off the bench.  So depending on what happens with Andrei Kirilenko, Muhammad will have some time to develop and won't be thrown to the wolves right away (pun intended).  It's a rather ideal situation on both sides.



And that concludes my grades and analysis on every lottery pick of yesterday's draft.  Now we'll delve into the megadeal, perhaps the biggest story of last night.

Trade #2: Brooklyn Nets/Boston Celtics
Nets receive: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry
Celtics receive: Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, first round picks in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
Grade for the Nets: A-
Grade for the Celtics: B+

Wow.  This is a blockbuster deal if I ever saw one.  The Celtics hit the reset button on the Xbox and completely detonated their team to begin the rebuilding process.  It's tough to process that Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce aren't going to retire as Celtics and it's weird to picture them in Brooklyn unis.  Well needless to say, this improves Brooklyn drastically, perhaps even into serious contenders.  Every position is stacked.  A lineup of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Brook Lopez.  Looks great on paper.  I wonder how it will translate though into team chemistry.  These are all guys that are pretty used to being alpha dogs for part, if not all of their careers.  There's only one basketball and there are a lot of mouths to feed, touches to be doled out down in Brooklyn.  It's obvious that the Nets want to win now and this trade puts them in a position to do so.  Granted, it's only a window of one, two years tops, and the skills of Pierce and Garnett have eroded drastically.  However, not having to carry an offense every night could do wonder for these two and they just might find a fountain of youth in Brooklyn.

Now the Celtics side of things.  It looks like they had to trade the remaining parts of their 08 championship core for 40 cents on the dollar.  Gerald Wallace is well on his way down, Kris Humphries is Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks can score but is unexciting and inconsistent, and Keith Bogans is trash.  But it's actually a smart move by Danny Ainge to start the rebuilding process now and build around an entering his prime Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green who we saw glimpses of stardom from in last year's playoffs.  Also, this deal unloaded some killer contracts (especially Terry's) to open up a ton of cap room and the three first rounders over the next five drafts will put the C's in a position to draft young stars (particularly if Brooklyn blows up and falls apart at some point between now and 2018).  So, it's not a bad deal for the Celtics either who immediately got younger and are looking at the long-term rather than the short-term.  Who knows? They may be bad enough this year to have a serious shot at drafting Andrew Wiggins next year.

Well this will be weird...


ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS:

I loved Jay Bilas dropping the Superbad reference in last night's coverage of the draft, saying that the controversy surrounding Shabazz Muhammad's age isn't as bad as having a fake driver's license with the name McLovin' on it.  Brilliant.

David Stern could have chosen to be rattled by the fans booing him at every turn, but he embraced it and turned it into some pretty funny moments.  "I can't hear you" and "The boo is an American sign of respect" were priceless.

A very (and I mean very) cool moment when Hakeem Olajuwon came out and surprised David Stern after Stern had read his final pick as NBA commissioner.  Olajuwon was the first pick Stern read way back in 1984 and last night, he sported the same tuxedo he wore way back then.  An incredible moment for any NBA fan.


I literally jumped off my couch with surprise when Anthony Bennett was selected #1 overall.  No really.  You could even hear ESPN's Bill Simmons yelling out "WHOA!!" when Stern announced Bennett's name.

And speaking of stupid Cavaliers picks, what was Cleveland doing selecting Sergey Karasev at #19 when they're desperate for size and Mason Plumlee was still on the board.  Is Dan Gilbert trying to sabotage any chance Cleveland has at getting LeBron back after next season?

I like the Plumlee pick for the Brooklyn Nets.  Good insurance for Brook Lopez in case Lopez's feet crap out.  Plus it was good to see the hometown Brooklyn crowd cheering the pick.  I've watched too many drafts of the 2000s at MSG where Knicks fans boo every Knicks single pick every single year.  Some of those guys  deserve to get booed (cough, cough Renaldo Balkman) but when they boo Danilo Gallinari and David Lee.  I mean come on Knicks fans.

I would have complemented Nerlens Noel on having a mini-version of his Kentucky jersey on the inside of his jacket but Alex Len kind of beat him to that just by being drafted before Noel.  Tough luck Nerlens.  Even Steven Adams and Ben McLemore followed suit but Len wins because he got to show it off first.

Holy Lucas Nogueira's hair!! That hat was ready to fall off at least 27 different times trying to do a balancing act on Nogueira's head.  He beats out Nerlens Noel for best hair of the 2013 draft.  And the hits just keep coming for Noel.

Look at that hat holding on for dear life

Jamaal Franklin fell way too far.  Should have gone in the early twenties but Memphis winds up scooping up the SDSU 2 guard at #41.  Watch out for this kid.  Same goes for CJ Leslie who wasn't drafted at all but has since signed with the Knicks.

Didn't know Shane Larkin was Barry Larkin's son.  Cool.

Speaking of Shanes, Shane Battier moonlighting as an ESPN interviewer was.....interesting.



Remember how I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that GMs always find a way to trade for useless players.  That's what that Nuggets/Grizzlies trade with Koufos and Darrell Arthur swapping places was.  Useless.

Only 4 months till the 2013-2014 NBA season!!!

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