Thoughts on the Arian Foster Situation

I really don't want to have to pick second in any of my fantasy football drafts this year.  It will leave me with an enigma that I don't think I can wrap my mind around.  It will probably wind up being the toughest, most perplexing decision I've ever encountered in all my years playing fantasy football.  And it's all thanks to one man: stud Houston Texans running back Arian Foster.  It seems like way more than a year ago when Foster was a no-brainer number one overall pick off fantasy football boards around the world.  And he earned that distinction.  The man is a monster in every sense of the word at the most important position in fantasy football and arguably the NFL.  In reality, he's only a couple of years removed from a ridiculous 2010 campaign where he lit the world on fire by posting over 1600 rush yards and 16 touchdowns (a video game-like average of 100 yards and a touchdown EVERY GAME).  He slowed down a little by his standards in the 2011 season, but he picked it up again last year to the tune of 1400 plus yards rushing and 15 touchdowns.  However, what's becoming a troublesome history of leg injuries (magnified already in OTAs as Foster recently suffered what Coach Gary Kubiak called "a pretty good calf strain," one that leaves his status for training camp up in the air), has Texans fans holding their collective breath and fantasy aficionados wondering what the hell to do.

Hopefully, we get less "anti-awesomeness" and more awesomeness
in Foster's 2013 campaign.  

On the one hand, Foster has actually only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons and is entering into the age 27-28 years where star running backs usually peak.  On the other hand, he's been a workhorse over the last few years, his YPC has been plummeting at a dangerous rate, and his injury history has been particularly unsettling, especially since Houston may exercise caution with him seeing that they have a talented backup in Ben Tate.  This leaves me in quite a compromising position as a fantasy football strategist.  What if I do get that second pick? Unless the miracle of all miracles happens, the freakishly talented, freakishly fast healing freak, the Purple Jesus, Adrian Peterson will be off the board.  Should I go with the sexiest pick and choose based on name and upside? If I go down that road, then Foster would be a no-brainer.  But he's becoming  a true risk-reward pick, perhaps a little too much so for my liking.  He's got a whole Stephen Curry thing going on for crying out loud!!! (But that's a topic for another day.  Man, I can't wait for fantasy basketball!) But what are my other options? See! This is why I hate picking second!!! #2 picks are how Sam Bowie happened.  #2 picks are how Darko Milicic happened.  #2 picks are how Ryan Leaf happened.  #2 PICKS ARE HOW MICHAEL BEASLEY HAPPENED DAMMIT!!! (Whoops sorry, I broke the number one rule of being a Miami Heat fan: never mention Michael Beasley's name.  Ever.) But man, I hate being number 2! Number 2 stinks!!!

He he number 2 stinks!!! 

But in all seriousness, I'd almost certainly have to go with a running back (sorry Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers but at this point in the history of fantasy football, it is a running back dominated game and nothing could ever justify choosing anything other than a running back with the #2 pick).  I could go with LeSean McCoy who will do great in Chip Kelly's run the damn ball offense but it seems to be too much of a reach at #2.  I could go for Ray Rice but he really shouldn't be going in the Top 8 any more after dipping numbers and the loss of the best fullback in the league, Vonta Leach.  "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch is an option but after owning him last year and sweating through the possibility of a DUI suspension, that's really not something I want to do again.  I could go with Jamaal Charles but he's like a Bizarro sexy pick.  He puts up numbers but it's not really fun to own him.  That leaves me with CJ Spiller, who we saw brilliance from last year and now an even brighter future is in store with the Bills' new run-first scheme, and the Muscle Hamster Doug Martin. You probably couldn't go wrong with either but the presence of Fred Jackson, however slight, is enough to persuade me that Martin is probably the better option.  An almost obscene rookie campaign last year and one of the strongest offensive lines in the entire league has Martin's arrow pointed straight up.  Plus it doesn't hurt that he's a Boise State hero.  (Sidenote: for some bizarre reason, the origins of which I can't trace, I rooted for the Broncos in blue for part of my childhood.  That Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma was one of the best sports moments of my life.  How did Chris Petersen have the balls to call three all or nothing plays in near succession? The Hook and Ladder, the "Zabransky is in motion!!!" play, and to go for 2 to win it with the Statue of Liberty?!?!? Unreal.  Plus Ian Johnson proposing to his girlfriend at the end was the icing on the cake.  So yes, maybe the awesome moments that rooting for the Boise State Broncos provided to me in my childhood sway me towards Doug Martin over CJ Spiller should I choose a #2 pick not named Arian Foster.  They're also the reason why I hate LeGarrette Blount.)

Muscle Hamster!!! I choose you!!!

At the end of the day, there are just two many red flags around Foster and even if he's set to hit his peak in the next few seasons, if not this season, what good will that be if he's forced to watch from the sidelines? Granted, I would still pounce at the opportunity to choose Arian Foster if I were to get a pick somewhere in the 4-6 range if he were to fall to me, but he is too risky of a pick in the top 2-3.  As a football fan, I sure hope that Arian Foster puts on another campaign reminiscent of 2010 and gives us something that we'll remember for many years to come.  However, as a fantasy football connoisseur, if you will, I may just find myself saying no to him this year and opting for a safer option like Doug Martin.