Thoughts on Rumors of Alex Len Going #1 Overall

I have to admit.  I was quite surprised when I heard today that the Cleveland Cavaliers were considering the possibility of selecting Maryland center Alex Len #1 overall in the upcoming NBA Draft which we are only 9 days away from.  In every single mock draft I had followed for the last few months, basically everybody had the 7 foot 1 Len going #6 overall to the Hornets (whoops, sorry, the Pelicans; this is gonna take a while to get used to). Nobody was talking about him going inside of the top 5 and with good reason.  THE MAN IS COMING OFF A STRESS FRACTURE IN HIS ANKLE FOR PETE'S SAKE!!! If there's one thing that NBA GM's should have learned after all of the Sam Bowies, the Bill Waltons, the Yao Mings, the Greg Odens, and the Michael Olowokandis, it's that you shouldn't gamble too highly on big men with foot problems!!! When I heard of Len's fracture that would sideline him for 4-6 months, I thought that would immediately send his draft stock into a free fall, perhaps even out of the top 15.  Once the feet start to go south with a big man, that's it.  A major foot injury is just not something that a guy with a 7 foot 260 plus pound build can come back from and be the same player he was before the injury.  That's what happened to Arvydas Sabonis.  That's what's about to happen to Pau Gasol.  And that's what Alex Len is seriously in danger of.  And the kid's only 20! He could spend the next decade plus watching games in a suit on the sidelines.

"Selecting a center with serious foot problems #1 overall?!?!? That's the
most ridiculous thing I've ever he-- Oh wait."

The talent is definitely there for Len, let's not forget that. He's a true center with an incredible wingspan and he's got a polished offensive game with a consistent mid-range J.  He's also a solid defender with equally solid athleticism.  But do the positives outweigh the huge red flags surrounding Len enough so to justify selecting him with the top pick in the 2013 NBA Draft? Well let's compare him with the other top big man in this class, a man that held the #1 overall position in mock drafts for most of the year this year, University of Kentucky standout Nerlens Noel.  Noel is coming off a major injury himself having torn his ACL in February in a game against the Florida Gators.  A torn ACL is usually a devastating blow to any player and it may take at least a year to fully recover from (or longer if your name rhymes with "Schmerrick Schmrose").  But as weird as it may sound, Noel's torn ACL is less concerning for me than Len's stress fracture.  The reason is this.  Big men, and relatively young big men at that, have suffered through torn ACLs and came back afterwards, not only as the same player they were before, but sometimes even better.  Al Jefferson and David West are a couple of examples of this.  As catastrophic as ACL injuries can be, in my opinion, a big man coming off a torn ACL is less concerning than a big man coming off a stress fracture in his foot.  And injuries aside, Noel is no slouch either.  He is freakishly athletic and is a monster on defense blocking shots left and right.  He was one of the most exciting players to watch in college all the way up until his injury, and there is little doubt that his defensive prowess will be able to translate well into the NBA game.

However, let's throw injuries aside and assume both players are at full health.  I would probably have to go with Alex Len over Noel.  Noel's offensive game needs some work (concerning to the point that people fear he'll just be the next Birdman, Chris Andersen) and he raised a lot of eyebrows by weighing in at a meager 206 pounds at the draft combine.  I highly doubt that a man that weighs just 5 pounds more than Jeremy Lin is going to be able to bang with NBA bigs in the paint.  Len has all of the tools you would want out of an NBA center and the midrange jumper will be a deadly weapon at this level.  Plus, he dominated Noel when Maryland faced Kentucky earlier this year putting up 23 and 12 and holding Noel to 4 points.  But once you throw in injury risk, this becomes a lot tougher.  Once you factor in the nature of their injuries and the types of builds that they have, I think Noel is still the better choice to draft #1 overall.  It's just downright foolish to take that big of a risk on Len that high in the draft.  Still think that #6 to the Pelicans would be a good spot to take Len.  However, this doesn't mean that I agree with selecting Nerlens Noel with the #1 pick.  Ultimately, I think that neither Noel nor Len should go #1 overall.

Nerlens Noel or Alex Len at #1 overall? The answer just might be neither.

If I'm Cavaliers GM Chris Grant and I decide to hold onto the pick, I'm not choosing either of these two for the aforementioned red flags surrounding both of them.  I definitely wouldn't choose Kansas SG Ben McLemore (whose name has been tossed around over the last few months as a candidate for the pick) either after concerns of him being a one-dimensional scorer and his work ethic plus reports that came out today that he showed up to team workouts out of shape.  Nope, if I'm picking first, I'm picking the surest thing in this draft: Indiana wingman Victor Oladipo.  Oladipo is an elite athlete with an incredible motor and the ability to become one of the top defenders in the league.  He's lightning quick and knows how to put the ball in the basket.  In a draft filled with uncertainty, Oladipo seems like the one sure thing and if I'm Cleveland, drafting him will give me the flexibility to start Oladipo at the 2 and bring Dion Waiters off the bench as a lethal scoring option, or go small and start Oladipo at the 2 and Waiters at the 3.

So in sum, Alex Len at #1 overall is a completely preposterous notion because there are numerous glaring red flags around him as well as serious doubts, all things considered, that he's a better choice than Nerlens Noel.  Still, Noel isn't the answer at #1 overall either which makes choosing Len at #1 even more laughable. Don't do it Cleveland! Go for the sure thing and choose Victor Oladipo!!!